Before I make bold predictions about the following ETFs I would like to emphaisze on the fact that the bounce we "could" have in early 2009 will NOT be the beginning of a new Bull Market ! I think we will remain in a huge trading range with wild swings or volatility if you prefer !!
SPY : Could it bounce up to $115 in early 2009 .. I would not even be impressed. We would top at these levels and the drif lower to the $70 level again. Expect volatility to remain in 2009
USO : A probable bounce up to $50 in early 2009,then a long drift lower towards $30 at the end of 2009.
GLD : A pullback in early 2009 down to $70. Then a trading range between $70 and $80 before ending 2009 at $60.
FXI : A probable bounce up to $35 in early 2009 followed by a drift lower towards $20 and below by year end in order to complete the final leg down !!
XLE : A probable bounce up to $60 in early 2009. another topping process around $60 and then we fall back down to the low $30 by year end.
XLF: Maybe a bounce ? will be really surprised if we manage to go over $17 and stay above that !!
ITB : Still in a huge basing pattern . Expecting 2009 to be the first year of the "muli year" basing pattern. Housing will not bottom in 2009 and take off!!
PPH : I think that big pharmaceuticals will be the big gainers of 2009. Why ? Because no one talks about them. They have shown great relative strength the past three months,still pay "safe" dividends,will still be bought no matter how bad is the economy,and the baby boomers are really getting old !!! Expecting PPH to reach $85 by year end.
TLT : A probable pullback down to $110. Then a slow uptrend until $130 before the topping process is complete. Expecting a huge topping process thru 2009. Don't forget that TLT is in a bubble and that it take some time before it pops!
UUP : The dollar will regain strength. $24 seems as a decent support level for 2009. Expecting UUP to go above $30 before year end. How about that contrarian prediction ??
Bonus Prediction : I expect also a major military conflict in 2009.... after all we have all the ingredients for it. All we need is a match and i suspect it wont take long before someone lights it up !! I remain very concerned about that! I really hope I'm wrong,but History always repeats istelf!
